Sunday, November 2, 2008

Upcoming Job Cuts

CNN looks into their crystal ball and prognosticates about which industries will see the majority of upcoming job cuts should the economy continue to shit the bed.

The piece isn't really a bold expose - none of their choices are surprising. Rather, they recite trends that are in the media daily.

Housing and finance? No brainers. Retail? Well, if people don't have jobs, they're not buying $70 tshirts at Abercrombie, which I believe is a good thing. Publishers? CNN opines that drops in advertising will spur a downturn for books, magazines, and periodicals, but people drive advertising, and there's been a long downturn in print media as new choices are made available, and that's not driven by the economy necessarily.

Autos? You mean we won't be buying or leasing vehicles that take up about 25% of our monthly net income? That's a shame - we might have to keep cars five years and actually pay them off before we buy another. Travel? If you don't have a job, you're not traveling for business or pleasure, and I don't have an issue with not being made to fly somewhere and back the same day to accomplish something that could easily be handled via phone or video conference.

Job cuts will come in the areas where we saw job growth as the economy boomed, and in careers that are entwined with those industries. This is the only place that trickle down economics makes sense - as the people at the top lose their jobs, those losses cascade down to all of us.

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